Minds On
Probability
For each event in the following list, decide whether the event would be:
- impossible
- certain
- likely
- unlikely
- equally likely
Press ‘Hint’ to learn the definitions.
Impossible: An event will never happen.
Certain: An event will always happen.
Likely: An event may or could.
Equally likely: Two events have an equal chance of happening.
Event 1: The sun will rise tomorrow.
Event 2: It will snow this afternoon.
Event 3: There will be lollipops growing in a nearby garden.
Event 4: A deer will walk by your window.
Event 5: The sun will set at 1:00 pm next Thursday.
Event 6: You will get either an odd or even number when the choices are from one to six.
Throughout this learning activity, you can record your thoughts digitally, orally, or in print.
Action
Task 1: Selecting cards
There is a pile of ten cards. On each card there is a word and an image.
Seven (7) cards have a star, two (2) cards have a flower, and one (1) card has a car.
Your task is to determine the likelihood of events occurring. For each event, select the corresponding term.
Press ‘Hint’ to reveal the definitions.
Vocabulary:
Impossible: An event will never happen.
Certain: An event will always happen.
Likely: An event may or could happen.
Unlikely: An event probably will not happen.
Task 2: Pulling items from a bag
A student has a bag of ten items. Five of the items are paper clips, and five of the items are erasers. They choose an item from the bag and after recording the item, they return the item to the bag. They pick out items ten times.
What is the likelihood of each event?
Predict how many times paperclips and/or erasers might have been picked from the bag.
Press ‘Answer’ to reveal the results.
Here are the results from the ten trials:
| Paper clip | Paper clip | Eraser | Paper clip | Eraser |
| Eraser | Eraser | Paper clip | Paper clip | Eraser |
How did using the likelihood of events help you make a prediction?
Record your ideas digitally, as an audio recording, or on paper.
Task 3: Spin the spinner
It’s spinner time!
Match the descriptions of the following four spinners to one of the following four events.
Record your ideas in a method of your choice.
Spinner 1: Has four equal sections, labelled as heart, heart, star, star
Spinner 2: Has four equal sections, labelled as ball, ball, ball, heart
Spinner 3: Has four equal sections, labelled as heart, heart, ball, clover
Spinner 4: Has four equal sections, labelled as clover, ball, ball, heart
Match the spinner for each of these events:
- It is likely to land on ball.
- It is impossible to land on star.
- It is equally likely to land on heart and star.
- It is unlikely to land on clover.
Press ‘Answer’ to reveal the matching spinners.
- a. Spinner 2
- b. Spinner 2, 3 or 4
- c. Spinner 1
- d. Spinner 3 or 4
Consolidation
Your turn
Create three different situations that represent three of the following five events. You can create a detailed description, a spinner, use items in a bag, cards, or another idea of your choice.
- An event that is impossible
- An event that is certain
- An event that is likely
- An event that is unlikely
- An event that is equally like to happen compared to another event
Record your ideas in a method of your choice.
Reflection
How do you feel about what you have learned in this activity? Which of the next four sentences best matches how you are feeling about your learning? Press the button that is beside this sentence.
I feel…
Now, record your ideas about your feelings using a voice recorder, speech-to-text, or writing tool.