Minds On

Probability

Explore the following video, “Lady Vocab: Probability,” and record any information that you think is important using the tool of your choice.

Did you recognize any of these key words from the video?

Think of a time…

Think of a time in your life when you hoped something would happen that was…

  • certain to happen (and did happen)
  • likely to happen
  • unlikely to happen
  • impossible to happen (and did not happen)

Throughout this learning activity, you can record your thoughts digitally, orally, or in print. Respond to these questions:

  1. What is the difference between something that is likely to happen and something that is certain to happen?
  2. What is the difference between something that is unlikely to happen and something that is impossible to happen?
  3. What is the difference between something that is likely to happen and something that is unlikely to happen?

Action

Probability terms

We are now going to review some terms that are related to probability.

Press each probability term to access their definitions:

Probability is a number from zero to one that shows how likely it is that an event will happen.

Likelihood is the chance of something happening.

The likelihood of an event can be described using terms “certain,” “likely,” “equally likely,” “unlikely,” or “impossible.”

Outcomes are possible results of an experiment.

For example, flipping a coin has two possible outcomes: the coin will either land heads up or tails up.

A favourable outcome is the outcome that you hope will occur.

An event is the outcome of a specific situation in an experiment, such as rolling an even number on a number cube.

Likely, unlikely, certain, and impossible

You are now going to match statements to the terms “likely,” “unlikely,” “certain,” and “impossible.”

For each statement, choose the matching term:

Now match the terms “likely,” “unlikely,” “certain,” and “impossible” to statements.

For each term, choose the matching statement:

Equally likely

Reflect on the probability terms by responding to the following questions. Record your responses using a method of your choice.

  • What does it mean for a game to have equally likely outcomes?
  • Can you think of a probability event that has equally likely outcomes?

Determining the probability of events

Imagine that there is a button you can press that produces the following responses:

elephant, elephant, bear, mouse, cat, aardvark, tiger, tiger, tiger, tiger, mouse, bear

Record your responses to the following questions using a method of your choice:

  1. How many outcomes are there for the button? List all of the possible outcomes.
  2. Which outcome is the most likely?
  3. Which outcome is the least likely?
  4. Is there an outcome that is certain for this button? If so, what is the outcome?
  5. Is there an outcome that is impossible for this button? If so, what is the outcome?
  6. True or False: the aardvark has an equally likely outcome to mouse. Explain your thinking.
  7. True or False: the tiger has an equally likely outcome to bear and mouse combined. Explain your thinking.

Press ‘Answers’ to reveal the solutions.

  1. There are 12 possible outcomes for the pressing the button. They are: elephant, elephant, bear, mouse, cat, aardvark, tiger, tiger, tiger, tiger, mouse, bear
  2. The outcome that is most likely is tiger. There are 4 tigers.
  3. The outcomes that are the least likely are cat and aardvark because they have one each.
  4. Yes, there is an outcome that is certain. The outcome that is certain is that you will pick an animal. All the choices are animals.
  5. An outcome that would be impossible is to not get an animal when you press the button. This is because the choices are all animals.
  6. False: the aardvark does not have an equally likely outcome to mouse. It has an equally likely outcome to the cat. The mouse has 2 chances out of 12 while the aardvark only has one chance.
  7. True: the tiger has an equally likely outcome to bear and mouse combined. There are 4 chances to get a tiger. Both bear and mouse have two chances each so combined they have 4 chances, same as tiger.

Consolidation

Task

Two students are playing a probability game.  They have a set of 10 cards labelled with numbers 1-10.  They shuffle the cards, and take turns selecting the top card from the pile. After each turn, they guess if the next card will be higher or lower than the card they picked.

  • Student One starts, and flips over the first card.  They get an 8.
  • Student One guesses the next card will be higher than 8.
  • Student Two guesses the next card will be lower than 8.

Which student do you agree with? Explain your thinking using the terms “impossible,” “unlikely,” “equally likely,” “likely,” and “certain” to describe the likelihood of events.

Record your ideas using a method of your choice.

Reflecting on probability

Use the tool of your choice to record responses to the following questions:

  • How are the words certain, likely, equally likely, unlikely, and impossible related to probability?
  • What is the difference between events that are equally likely and events that are likely?

Complete the Probability Events List in your notebook or using the following fillable and printable document. List as many different probability events as you can think of for each term.

Probability Events List
Probability term Events
Certain
Likely
Equally likely
Unlikely
Impossible

Press the ‘Activity’ button to access Probability Events List. 

Activity(Open PDF in a new window)

Reflection

As you read through these descriptions, which sentence best describes how you are feeling about your understanding of this learning activity? Press the button that is beside this sentence.

I feel…

Now, record your ideas using a voice recorder, speech-to-text, or writing tool.